Happy 4th! The Future of U.S. Aviation

July 3, 2013
Blog Post
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#blogformation #avgeek #aviation #blog #4thofJuly #Independenceday

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Happy Birthday America!

It’s Blogging in Formation Week!

Posts all week from your favorite Aviation Bloggers!

This week’s theme:

The Future of U.S. Aviation

Hotlinks to Blogging in Formation sites:

Saturday, June 29: Dan Pimentel (Airplanista)

Sunday, June 30: Andrew Hartley (Smart Flight Training)
Monday, July 1: Brent Owens (IFlyBlog)
Tuesday, July 2: Karlene Petitt (Flight to Success)
Wednesday, July 3: Eric Auxier (Adventures of Cap’n Aux)
Thursday, July 4: Ron Rapp (House of Rapp)

— — — — — —

And now…

THE FUTURE OF U.S. AVIATION

(According to Cap’n Aux)*

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“Ladies and gentlemen, from the flight deck, this is Cap’n Swayne speaking. We are expecting a little turbulence during our reentry sequence, so please float safely back to your seats and strap in. Our 3-hour suborbital flight from Tokyo this evening puts us into JFK at 6am local time—the same day we left. No, we didn’t exceed the speed of light, we simply crossed the International Dateline. On behalf of First Officer Karim, Celestial Navigator Dan, Head Flight Attendant Miss TWA, and our Relief & Return Crews Dillon, Justin, Alex, Chad, Junior and Hamza, we’d like to welcome you to Tokyo. And thank you for flying Pan American Starways.”

Too far-fetched? Well, perhaps for ol’ Cap’n Aux, who retires in less than 15 years. But for some of our intrepid blog readers, who are only now starting flight training, many still in their teens . . .

I sincerely believe the sky is NOT the limit!

But more on that in the near future…

future airplane, airline, aviation, avgeek

For now, we are all concerned with the IMMEDIATE future of aviation in the U.S. And, more specifically, the immediate ECONOMIC future.

And what happens in the U.S., stays in the U.S. . . .

Well, actually, it doesn’t. It usually has a worldwide impact.

I included this pic cuz…they’re flying their bitchin’ futuristic ride to a ski resort!

BACK TO THE FUTURE—

IT AIN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE

The airline industry is an enormously volatile business, always the first to lose in an economic downturn and the last to recover.

Since Tony Jannus conducted the United States’ first scheduled commercial airline flight on January 1, 1914 for the St. Petersburg-Tampa Airboat Line, the airline industry as a whole has lost more money than it has made.

world's first airine pilot, future airplane, airline, aviation, avgeek

Tony Jannus, the world’s first airline pilot, January 1, 1914

Moreover, for the past 30 years, the airline industry has been on an insane roller coaster ride—mostly downhill. Airline profits and pilot pay have skydived from its peak during the “Golden Age of Air Travel” in the mid-20th century.

As Richard Branson famously said, if you want to become a millionaire, start as a billionaire and buy an airline! And, as Cap’n Aux famously says, if you want stability, ditch the airline career and take up acting!

OK, warnings, disclaimers and caveats aside, if you’re STILL determined to pursue that Great Four Stripe in the Sky, read on . . .

flying man, future airplane, airline, aviation, avgeek

The grueling commute to work!

THE NEAR FUTURE: 5 -10 YEARS

Consolidation in the industry has left the traveling public “The Big 3”: American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta, along with a smattering of wily “smaller” airlines—Southwest, chief among them.

And the “Looming Pilot Shortage,” a standard, cynical pilot joke for the past 30 years, may finally—FINALLY!—be looming.

The GOOD NEWS: First and foremost, due to the extreme volatility and stagnation industry-wide since the early 90’s, tens of thousands of experienced airline pilots are now poised to retire in the next 10 years, creating a vacuum that will inevitably suck tens of thousands of minor-league pilots up into the majors, and ultimately into the left seat.

The BAD NEWS: Some of the “Looming Pilot Shortage” has been self-inflicted. Bowing to political pressure, the FAA has slapped band-aid fixes on fundamental issues—chief among them, minimum pilot experience requirements. On paper, this seems safer. More importantly, it sounds good to the public. But this arbitrary cosmetic fix will prove to be woefully short-sighted. Higher requirements for even the most rudimentary flying job—along with a pilot paycheck that’s plummeted 60% or more in the past 3 decades—will create a vacuum that is, at least initially, monumentally hard to fix.

The UGLY NEWS: The pilots’ age-old Catch 22 paradox—you can’t GET the flight time without HAVING the flight time, has just been compounded by these ill-guided new regulations. As a result, those with money to burn have an even greater advantage, essentially buying their way into the cockpit.

And . . . The POSSIBLY GOOD NEWS: Ultimately, I see only one solution. U.S. airlines will be forced to start their own pilot training programs, a la Lufthansa, et al—and perhaps even with government subsidy. But that will depend on public sentiment.

Recruited out of college, the best of the best future pilots will have their careers mapped out for them. This removes much of the insane volatility, possibly ups the average quality of recruits, and perhaps will even level the playing field a smidgen. Moreover, it may finally put some upward pressure on the pilot’s free-falling paycheck.

Something’s gotta give, but it won’t give for awhile . . . .

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AUTOMATION

Or, “Nothing can go wrong”

“Ladies and gentlemen, you are flying in a fully automated Airbus A9000. There are no human pilots on board, only computers. Sit back, relax and enjoy the flight. Nothing can go wrong . . . click! Go wrong . . . click! . . . Go wrong.”

Future cockpits will be manned with one pilot, and one dog. The pilot’s job is to feed the dog, and the dog’s job is to bite the pilot if he tries to touch anything.

Like the “Looming Pilot Shortage” wisecrack, the above two jokes have circulated among pilots for the past two to three decades—albeit with a bit of nervous trepidation.

—BUT—

While drones have been used to spectacular success on the battlefield, and are poised to aid Big Brother in watching over you—curtains drawn or not—they are still by and large operated remotely by human “pilots.”

Airplane!, the movie, future airplane, airline, aviation, avgeek

As I said in my blog post, “Busted Aviation Myths: Otto is My Copilot,” the onboard Autopilot is nothing more than a 3D Cruise Control. It processes, but it doesn’t think.

While I’m a huge fan of high tech, I believe we still have decades—and more likely centuries—to go before computer processing approaches anywhere near human capacity for judgement.

For the foreseeable future, NextGen (Next Generation Air Transportation System) sems to be the most realistic probability. Satellite-based rather than ground-based, it promises to revolutionize the industry plagued today by traffic delays and inefficient routes.

2101: A SPACE ODYSSEY

Direct Link: http://youtu.be/q3oHmVhviO8

As a kid, I watched the spectacle that was Stanley Kubrick’s movie, 2001: A Space Odyssey, from the novel by Arthur C. Clarke. I was awestruck. I was especially enchanted by the space shuttle Orion—flown by Pan Am—which launched from earth and docked with a space station in low orbit, to the tune of J Strauss’ The Blue Danube.

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I daresay I dreamed from that day on to pilot that very craft by the end of my career.

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Sadly, 2001 has come and gone, and the Space Shuttles have all been parked, mothballed in museums like so many WWII warbirds.

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While Kubrick & Clarke’s prediction nailed the space shuttle dead on, it appears that the rest of their utopian vision of space travel was off by about a century.

2001: a space odyssey, future airplane, airline, aviation, avgeek

Nevertheless, I maintain complete faith that Cap’n Swayne, First Officer Karim and the rest of our intrepid future aviators will, within their lifetime, experience something very similar.

Why?

Because, despite crippling government red tape and politics, devastating wars, and the rest of societies ills, the Indomitable American Spirit thrives, evolves, innovates, and inexorably moves forward—and outward.

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Perhaps, just perhaps, the Jet Jocks of today will give way to the ion engine Space Jocks of tomorrow.

These Pan American Starways Cap’ns will no doubt write blogs on the Central Subspace Cortex—broadcast in hologram—that are followed by millions of AvGeeks, from the Mars outposts to the asteroid mining colonies.

And I hope that, one day, they dedicate a holoblog post . . .

cap'n aux, pilot, airline, avgeek, aviation

. . . to that crusty ol’ Jet Jock dinosaur, Cap’n Aux.

Cap’n Aux’s retirement toy!

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!!!

To finish off, a little musical treat by Donald Fagen of Steely Dan:

“I.G.Y. (What a Beautiful World)”

a delightfully nostalgic, “retro” look back to the future, envisioned in the 50’s . . .

direct link: http://youtu.be/-k1m9TevgJM

THIS POST IS DEDICATED TO THE MEMORY OF MY FATHER,

whose birthday would have been today (7/3)

auxier, smith, river trip, sierras, sierra nevada, wilderness, fishing, fish, frank lake

Dad at his favorite fishin’ hole on Frank Lake (named after my grandpa), somewhere in the California Sierras. His ashes were spread on this spot.

A WWII vet, my father served aboard the U.S. Destroyer S.S. Preston as a RADAR technician in the South Pacific. I like to think I inherited his creativity, sense of humor, and passion for adventure . . . which (I hope) helped write this piece! HAPPY BIRTHDAY, DAD! — — — — — — IN MEMORIUM

AND A SPECIAL DEDICATION TO OUR 19 FIREFIGHTING HEROES,

LOST SUNDAY, 6/30/13, IN THE WILDFIRES OF ARIZONA…